Want Better Results? Stop Being Positive and Start Doing the Math
Want better results? Most people assume success requires endless optimism, but author Kyle Austin Young argues that “thinking negative” is the true key to winning. In his latest work, Success Is a Numbers Game, Young suggests that probability—not positivity—is the most overlooked driver of achievement in the modern era. By shifting the focus from motivational quotes to behavioral science, high-achievers are finding that they can effectively “engineer” their wins. This refreshing counterpoint to the “just believe in yourself” culture suggests that your biggest hurdles are likely mathematical, not emotional.
Why Your “Gut Feeling” Is Lowering Your Odds
When we assess a new project, we often fall into the trap of averaging our chances of success. Young points out that if a goal requires three steps and you have a 70% confidence level in each, you don’t have a 70% chance of succeeding—you actually have a $34\%$ chance ($0.7 \times 0.7 \times 0.7$). Humans are natural overestimators because we fail to multiply the individual odds of every prerequisite step. If you truly want better results, you have to stop looking at the best-case scenario and start calculating the compounding risk of failure.
The Power of “Thinking Negative” for Peak Performance
The most counterintuitive lesson for those who want better results is the necessity of brainstorming bad outcomes. Young advocates for “Success Diagrams,” which are essentially maps of everything that could go wrong during a project. Instead of pumping up team morale with empty slogans, leaders are now finding success by systematically de-risking their biggest threats. By identifying the specific “bad outcome” most likely to happen, you can pull creative levers to disarm that risk before it ever manifests.
Expert Intuition vs. Beginner Data
While data is king, the role of intuition remains a hot topic for those who want better results in complex fields. Young offers a nuanced view: beginners should almost always trust the numbers, while true experts may rely on a subconscious reach that precedes conscious reasoning. Often, what we call “intuition” is actually thinly veiled greed or anxiety. However, for a seasoned professional, intuition is the mind recognizing a pattern that the current data set hasn’t yet captured, allowing for a pivot that numbers alone might miss.
Turning Failed Ideas Into Billion-Dollar Pivots
If you want better results, you must learn to view failure as a misunderstood variable in your success equation. Young points to the founders of YouTube, who originally designed the platform as a dating site that failed to gain traction. Rather than discarding the technology, they repurposed their progress and pivoted to a general video-sharing model, eventually selling for over $1.5 billion. This “repurposing” mindset ensures that no effort is ever truly wasted, as every failed experiment provides the data necessary for the next successful iteration.
The Prolific Secret of History’s Greatest Icons
History proves that if you want better results, you simply have to increase your volume of attempts. Mozart composed over 600 pieces, and Thomas Edison experimented with 6,000 different filaments before perfecting the lightbulb. This “inglorious” approach is the most reliable way to turn a 1% chance of success into a guaranteed outcome over time. Success isn’t about magic or a single “big break”; it is a painstaking, measurable process of making data-driven decisions and reducing the probability of failure until only success remains.
Credit: Forbes.com
